CREMO Comparison of Simple and Advanced Regional Models

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The Project R&D SC060037 - Comparison of simple and advanced regional models

This project will evaluate the performance characteristics of Models 3 for real regulatory applications in order to assist the Agency to make an informed decision whether to include advanced modelling as one of its assessment tools. The Models 3 will be compared with existing methods, FRAME for acid deposition, TRACK-ADMS for annual audits and POCP and OSRM for ozone. The project will apply Models 3 to a series of assessments including acid deposition, particulate matter, and ozone and test its capabilities through targeted comparisons with simpler models and with measurements according to agreed model acceptance criteria.

Aims of project

(i) To provide a technique for assessing the contribution of industrial emissions of NOx and VOC under realistic meteorological conditions to ambient levels of ozone based on Models-3 and involving comparison with simpler methods and observations.

ii) To provide a technique for assessing the contribution of industrial emissions under realistic meteorological conditions to ambient levels of PM 10 and PM 2.5, based on Models-3 and involving comparison with simpler methods and observations.

Objectives of project

The above aims will be met by the following specific objectives:

(a) To compare the performance of Models 3 with FRAME and TRACK-ADMS for producing footprints of deposition and concentrations resulting from Agency regulated industrial emissions (Year 1);

(b) To assess the capabilities of Models 3 as a practical tool for modelling acid deposition, ozone and size speciated particulate matter (Year 2);

(c) To evaluate the capabilities of Models 3 to predict regional ozone concentrations and their response to changes in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (Year 3);

(d) To assess the capabilities of Models 3 to calculate the contribution of regulated industrial emissions to size speciated particulate matter concentrations and associated chemical species (Year 4);

(e) To identify the main operational applications of Models 3 by examining the variability and uncertainty resulting from changes to input parameters through sensitivity analysis (Year 5);

(f) To synthesise and integrate the outcomes of previous tasks and make recommendations on how and under what circumstances Models 3 should be used by the Agency for regulatory applications (Year 6).

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